Hi Reader,

Mortgage rates improved again last week. According to Mortgage News Daily, the average 30-year fixed mortgage rate ended the week at 7.17%, down from 7.27% the previous week. Freddie Mac's weekly survey showed a similar improvement, with the average falling to 7.18%, down from 7.24%.

Why are mortgage rates moving lower?

The 10-year Treasury yield, which heavily influences mortgage rates, declined for the fifth consecutive week, ending Friday at 4.858%, down nearly 7 basis points for the week. From Thursday (via WSJ):

What's interesting is that this decline happened despite some surprisingly strong economic data. There were several competing forces moving the bond market last week, and the political landscape played an unusually large role.

Here's what moved the markets:

1. The midterm elections changed the outlook.

Democrats won control of Congress in last week's elections, creating a divided government. Investors responded favorably, partly because a divided government could limit additional federal spending due to potential deadlock.

There was also growing speculation that the election results could accelerate an end to the war in Iran. Vice President JD Vance attributed Republican losses partly to the war, fueling expectations that the administration could seek a resolution.

Oil prices plunged on Wednesday, with Brent crude falling 8.7% to $94.62 per barrel. Lower oil prices could help ease inflationary pressures, which is welcome news for the bond market and potentially for mortgage rates. Brent crude prices remain down as of this morning:

2. A stock market selloff sent investors into bonds.

Following Wednesday's post-election stock market rally, stocks reversed sharply on Thursday amid fears surrounding artificial intelligence investments and the outlook for data center construction.

​The Nasdaq fell 5.5%, the S&P 500 dropped 4.4%, and the Dow lost 1,833 points.​

When investors get nervous about stocks, they often move money into the relative safety of Treasury bonds. That increased demand pushes bond prices higher and yields lower.

The 10-year Treasury yield fell more than 11 basis points over the two trading sessions following the election, reaching 4.836% on Thursday, near a two-month low.

Mortgage rates can benefit from stock market turmoil, even when the underlying economy remains strong.

3. Friday's jobs report reminded everyone that the economy is still running hot.

The October employment report came in substantially stronger than expected.

• ​Employers added 165,000 jobs, compared with expectations of just 59,000.
• ​August and September employment figures were revised upward by a combined 84,000 jobs.
• ​Unemployment fell to 4.1% from 4.2%.

These numbers suggest the labor market is holding up considerably better than economists anticipated.

That's good news for the economy, but it complicates the picture for mortgage rates.

A strong labor market gives the Federal Reserve more room to keep monetary policy restrictive as it battles inflation. Investors are still expecting another Fed rate increase in December, and Friday's employment data reinforced those expectations.

Treasury yields moved higher on Friday following the report, although they still finished the week lower overall.

Are we out of the woods (rising mortgage rates) yet?

We are currently in a battle between high inflation + strong employment indicators vs. market factors where chaos in tech is driving investors into bonds. Expect more volatility, but fingers crossed that it's more of a downward jag instead of an upward one.

First-Time Buyers Are Getting Older, and Agents Are More Important Than Ever

The National Association of REALTORS' 2026 Profile of Home Buyers and Sellers offers some striking insights into how difficult the market has become for younger buyers.

First-time buyers accounted for just 22% of home purchases, up slightly from last year's historic low of 21%. Before the Great Recession, first-time buyers represented roughly 40% of the market:

The median age of a first-time buyer is now 40 years old, matching last year's record high. In 2010, it was 30.

We're also seeing buyers find creative ways to make homeownership work:

• Just 47% of first-time buyers were married.
• A record 5% purchased with roommates.
• Fourteen percent of all buyers purchased multigenerational homes.

Another noteworthy statistic: repeat buyers have a median age of 62, and homeowners are staying in their properties for a record median of 12 years before selling.

That helps explain why inventory remains constrained. Many existing homeowners are reluctant to give up their low mortgage rates, while younger buyers face significant affordability hurdles.

But here's a particularly encouraging statistic for real estate professionals: 90% of buyers used an agent or broker, the highest share in four decades. Among sellers, that figure was 92%, also a record:

Even with all the information available online, buyers and sellers still overwhelmingly want professional guidance when navigating the biggest financial transactions of their lives.

Winter Is for the Strategic Buyer

As we head into the winter months, I think it's worth remembering that the housing market doesn't shut down just because the weather gets cold.

Winter can be a particularly interesting time for several kinds of buyers.

Bargain shoppers: With fewer buyers actively looking, there may be opportunities to negotiate on price, closing costs or other terms. Especially on properties that have been sitting on the market.

Buyers on a deadline: Job relocations, family changes and other life events don't follow the spring real estate calendar. These buyers need solutions that work with their timelines, not the season.

Investors: For investors, the numbers matter more than the season. A slower market can create opportunities to evaluate properties, negotiate terms and structure financing around a property's income potential.

Spring buyers: This may actually be the most overlooked group. Buyers who want to purchase in the spring should be getting their financial house in order now. That means reviewing credit, understanding purchasing power, evaluating loan programs and getting fully preapproved before competition picks up.

And this is where I can help.

As a mortgage broker, I'm not limited to one bank's products or pricing. I can shop across lenders, compare financing structures and find strategies that fit different buyers and different properties.

For some buyers, that means finding the most competitive rate. For others, it means structuring seller concessions to reduce upfront costs or monthly payments, finding financing for an investment property, or identifying a loan program that better accommodates their financial situation.

I also work with buyers well before they're ready to make an offer, so they can enter the market prepared, with a clear understanding of what they can afford and how to make their financing as competitive as possible.

Winter may be a quieter season for real estate, but it can be one of the most productive times to put a smart buying strategy together.

If you have clients who want to buy now, investors looking at opportunities, or buyers who want to be ready for the spring market, I'd love to help.

I hope your week is off to a great start!

-Nicole

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Nicole Hamilton Bernheimer | NMLS #2354049

nicole@homeownering.com, 917-650-0167

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