Hi Reader,

The average 30-year fixed mortgage rate ended the week at 7.33%, down from 7.37% the previous week, according to Mortgage News Daily. Freddie Mac's weekly survey showed a similar improvement, with the average 30-year fixed rate falling to 7.32%, down from 7.40% the prior week.

You can see in the chart above how we've moved off the peak of 7.61% we saw a couple of weeks ago.

Why did rates move lower again?

The 10-year Treasury yield finished Friday at 4.987%, down 0.11 percentage point for the week, marking its third consecutive weekly decline. Compare this with the 5.311% we saw when mortgage rates hit 7.61%. This morning, it is hovering just shy of 5.00%:

Several developments contributed to the movement:

Investors sought safety in U.S. Treasurys. Concerns about France's government debt and political unrest sent investors looking for safer places to put their money. A Thursday sell-off in technology stocks, driven partly by concerns over AI-related spending also pushed investors toward bonds. Higher demand for Treasurys generally drives yields lower, which can help mortgage rates.

Economic data presented a mixed picture. The labor market remained resilient, with weekly jobless claims falling to 194,000. But the housing market continued to show weakness. September housing starts declined 5.2%, and pending home sales fell 7.3%, reaching the lowest level since the index began in 2001. Consumer sentiment has also been soft: the Michigan Survey recorded some of the lowest levels in years.

Oil prices and inflation remain concerns. Rising tensions in the Middle East pushed oil prices sharply higher during the week, adding to inflation worries. That complicates the outlook for interest rates, even as investors have been buying Treasurys.

What will happen at the Fed meeting this week?

The Fed is expected to hold steady this week. As of this morning, markets were pricing in a 91% probability that the Fed would leave rates unchanged at its upcoming meeting, while anticipating another hike in December.

And the longer-term outlook suggests elevated rates could stick around. In a Wall Street Journal survey of 71 economists, roughly three-quarters expected the 10-year Treasury yield to finish 2026 at 5% or higher, and more than a third expected it to remain at or above 5% through 2027:

What does this mean for buyers?

Mortgage rates can improve even when the Fed isn't cutting rates, because they are more closely influenced by longer-term bond yields. This week's decline is an example. But expectations for continued high Treasury yields suggest buyers shouldn't count on a dramatic decline in mortgage rates anytime soon.

My take is that AI/tech stocks may remain unpredictable, leaving us with dueling forces: the performance of tech stocks influencing where investors put their money, versus global events affecting inflation. So we have a push/pull effect which will keep us guessing week to week.

Mortgage news: executive order to reduce mortgage costs

​President Trump signed an executive order last week targeting some of the costs of getting and maintaining a mortgage.

Two provisions are worth watching:

1. Proactive mortgage insurance cancellation. The order directs the Federal Housing Finance Agency (FHFA) to create a pilot program that would automatically cancel private mortgage insurance for eligible borrowers once they reach a certain equity threshold. The program would apply to mortgages originated after its launch.

Currently, conventional borrowers can generally request PMI cancellation when their loan balance reaches 80% of the home's original value, with automatic termination generally occurring at 78%, subject to eligibility requirements.

2. Lower refinancing costs. The order also seeks to make permanent an existing FHFA pilot program that allows certain borrowers to refinance without traditional lender's title insurance, using less expensive alternatives.

The limited pilot was estimated to save borrowers between $500 and $1,500 in closing costs.

The potential savings are welcome, although the details of how these programs will be implemented, and which borrowers will qualify, remain to be seen.

Real estate news: Northeast home prices vary widely

​New data from ResiClub shows a substantial difference in price appreciation across the Northeast.

Among the region's 40 largest housing markets:

Westchester County, NY: +7.8% year over year, the strongest performance.

Baltimore City: -3.9% year over year, the weakest performance.

That's an 11.7-percentage-point difference between the strongest and weakest markets.

It's a reminder that the Northeast is hardly a single housing market. Buyers looking across different locations can encounter very different pricing conditions, even within the same region. But look at the wall of (mostly) blue in the chart above, indicating price increases. Year-over-year price increases in many counties. All the more reason to find a way into the housing market, despite higher mortgage rates.

What I can do for you and your buyers

One of the biggest advantages of working with a mortgage broker is having access to multiple lenders, loan programs, and ways to structure a mortgage.

And one of my favorite parts of this business is solving problems that aren't necessarily straightforward.

If you have a buyer who's particularly payment-sensitive, a complicated property that doesn't fit neatly into conventional lending guidelines, or a deal that's hit a snag with another lender, I'd love to take a look.

I enjoy working through the tricky stuff, figuring out what options exist, and finding creative solutions to help buyers get to the closing table.

Send me your mortgage puzzles. I love a challenge.

Halloween is this Saturday. I hope you and your family have a wonderful weekend, whether you are trick or treating with little ones, handing out candy, or just taking it easy with a slice of pumpkin pie.

This is probably what I'll be doing again (and wearing the same costume):

I hope your week is off to a great start!

-Nicole

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Nicole Hamilton Bernheimer | NMLS #2354049

nicole@homeownering.com, 917-650-0167

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