Hi Reader,

After seven consecutive weeks of increases, mortgage rates finally showed some improvement.

According to Mortgage News Daily, the average 30-year fixed mortgage rate ended Friday at 7.37%, down from 7.48% the previous week. Freddie Mac's weekly average held steady at 7.40%, unchanged from the week before.

Let's look at what's happening in the economy and the housing market.

The 10-year Treasury: A volatile week, but yields end lower

The 10-year Treasury yield, a key benchmark for mortgage rates, finished Friday at 5.097%, down 0.146 percentage points for the week, according to The Wall Street Journal.

That's the second consecutive weekly decline, following a recent 24-year high of 5.365%.

Here's what happened:

1. Investors moved into safer assets. Concerns about technology stocks, particularly companies borrowing heavily to finance artificial intelligence investments, sent investors into U.S. Treasurys. Increased demand for bonds pushes their prices higher and yields lower. On Thursday alone, the 10-year yield fell approximately 0.10 percentage points.
2. Inflation is still running hot. September's consumer price index rose 3.7% year over year, while wholesale producer prices increased 6.3%, the largest annual increase in more than four years. These figures reinforce concerns that inflation remains well above the Federal Reserve's 2% target (to say the least).
3. The economy continues to show resilience. September retail sales increased 0.8%, beating expectations, and industrial production rose more than anticipated. Weekly unemployment claims remained low at 199,000.
4. The Fed is not giving any new signals we can interpret. Officials have indicated no rush to raise interest rates, and markets are currently pricing in no change at the Fed's next meeting (CME tool currently showing 85% predict no change at October Fed meeting). However, inflation expectations one year ahead have reached 2.64%, their highest level since June.
5. Oil prices are another inflation concern. Brent crude climbed nearly 4% Friday, approaching $110 per barrel, its highest level since May. Higher energy prices can feed into inflation expectations and influence Treasury yields.
6. Treasury borrowing remains a factor. Longer-term yields rose slightly Friday after the Treasury Department did not signal plans to reduce the size of future longer-term bond auctions. Investors had been watching for indications of smaller auctions that might help keep yields in check.

Despite Thursday's substantial decline, the 10-year yield ticked higher Friday to approximately 5.10%, still below its recent high of about 5.3%.

In a nutshell: A significant sell off in tech stocks pushed investors into bonds/Treasuries, increasing demand and reducing yields which helped mortgage rates. However, pressure on Treasuries remain high, with oil, inflation, possible future Fed rate hikes, and strong economic factors.

What's happening in real estate?

NYC sees its biggest wave of new listings in four years

September brought 4,951 new listings across New York City's five boroughs, up 7.6% year over year and the highest monthly total since spring 2022, according to StreetEasy data reported by the New York Post.

Signed contracts fell 5.4% citywide, and the typical home spent 88 days on the market, two weeks longer than last year. The median asking price declined 5.2% to $995,000.

Yet more than 21% of homes still sold above asking price, and overall inventory remained 4.9% below last year.

Queens was a notable exception to the slowdown in contracts, with a 9.3% increase, helped by a 12.4% jump in co-op deals.

National existing-home sales rise modestly

​Existing-home sales increased 1.5% in September, reaching an annualized pace of 3.99 million homes.

But August and September were still the two slowest months of 2026, according to NAR chief economist Lawrence Yun.

Yun noted that longer marketing times and higher inventory are giving buyers more negotiating power, while sellers may need to consider price reductions and other incentives.

Housing, inflation and the value of owning an asset

With so much volatility in financial markets, I've been thinking about the role homeownership plays in building long-term financial stability.

​As Manhattan Borough President Mark Levine has pointed out, rents continue to rise at a brisk pace.

The latest StreetEasy figures underscore that point: Manhattan's median asking rent reached $4,995 in September, up 8% year over year, while rental inventory declined 15.3% citywide.

Homeownership offers something important in an inflationary environment: With a fixed-rate mortgage, homeowners can lock in their principal and interest payments for decades, even as rents and other costs rise.

And unlike renting, homeownership offers the opportunity to accumulate equity and own a tangible asset that can diversify a household's wealth beyond stocks, bonds and other investments.

Homes aren't immune to market fluctuations, and owning comes with expenses and risks. But for people planning to stay in their homes long term, real estate can provide both a measure of protection against housing-cost inflation and a way to build wealth over time.

NYC and Beyond: Finding your path to homeownership

This past week, I hosted another homebuyer Zoom focused on NYC and Beyond, discussing different approaches to purchasing a home, the financial trade-offs involved, and why homeownership can be an important part of a long-term financial strategy.

These themes, affordability, inflation, market volatility and asset diversification, were central to that discussion. See this clip:

If I can be helpful to you or your team in framing these issues, explaining mortgage financing strategies or helping clients evaluate their options, let me know.

I'm here to help.

I hope your week is off to a great start.

-Nicole

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Nicole Hamilton Bernheimer | NMLS #2354049

nicole@homeownering.com, 917-650-0167

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